{"id":31265,"date":"2023-07-19T19:01:50","date_gmt":"2023-07-19T11:01:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/?p=31265"},"modified":"2023-07-19T19:01:51","modified_gmt":"2023-07-19T11:01:51","slug":"%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e6%99%82%e5%85%b7%e5%82%99%e3%80%8c%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87%e6%80%9d%e7%b6%ad%e3%80%8d%e8%80%8c%e9%9d%9e%e3%80%8c%e7%b5%90%e6%9e%9c%e5%b0%8e%e5%90%91%e3%80%8d%e7%9a%84%e9%87%8d%e8%a6%81","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e6%99%82%e5%85%b7%e5%82%99%e3%80%8c%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87%e6%80%9d%e7%b6%ad%e3%80%8d%e8%80%8c%e9%9d%9e%e3%80%8c%e7%b5%90%e6%9e%9c%e5%b0%8e%e5%90%91%e3%80%8d%e7%9a%84%e9%87%8d%e8%a6%81\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6295\u8cc7\u6642\u5177\u5099\u300c\u6982\u7387\u601d\u7dad\u300d\u800c\u975e\u300c\u7d50\u679c\u5c0e\u5411\u300d\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u8a18\u5f97\u53bb\u5e74\u8a66\u904e\u6709\u4e00\u5929\u6e96\u5099\u51fa\u767c\u53bb\u884c\u5c71\uff0c\u51fa\u767c\u524d\u5929\u6c23\u4ecd\u4e0d\u932f\uff0c\u67e5\u95b1\u5929\u6587\u53f0\u7db2\u9801\u770b\u5230\u7576\u65e5\u964d\u96e8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f20%\uff0c\u65bc\u662f\u6211\u4fbf\u653e\u5fc3\u6109\u5feb\u5730\u51fa\u767c\u4e86\u3002\u6700\u5f8c\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u662f\u6574\u500b\u904e\u7a0b\u53ea\u670920%\u7684\u6642\u9593\u6c92\u6709\u4e0b\u96e8\uff0c\u5e78\u597d\u6211\u51fa\u767c\u524d\u9084\u662f\u6709\u628a\u5098\u653e\u9032\u80cc\u5305\u88e1\u3002\u65bc\u662f\u6211\u7576\u65e5\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u7d50\u8ad6\u662f\uff1a\u5929\u6587\u53f0\u7684\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\u4e0d\u6e96\u78ba\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u9019\u6a23\u5462\uff1f\u5982\u679c\u5b83\u8aaa\u964d\u96e8\u6982\u7387\u662f0%\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u6211\u7684\u7d50\u8ad6\u6c92\u6709\u554f\u984c\u3002\u5176\u5be6\u964d\u96e8\u6982\u7387\u662f20%\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u610f\u5473\u4e0d\u964d\u96e8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f80%\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u7d55\u5c0d\u4e0d\u6703\u4e0b\u96e8\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u53ef\u60dc\u6700\u5f8c\u662f\u90a320%\u767c\u751f\u4e86\u3002\u90a3\u9ebc\u5982\u4f55\u624d\u80fd\u8aaa\u5b83\u7684\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\u4e0d\u6e96\u78ba\u5462\uff1f\u5c31\u662f\u6bcf\u5929\u90fd\u770b\u4e00\u6b21\u964d\u96e8\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u6bcf\u5929\u90fd\u770b\u770b\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u4e0b\u96e8\uff0c\u9023\u7e8c\u6578\u500b\u6708\u4fbf\u6703\u5927\u81f4\u5ba2\u89c0\u770b\u5230\u5b83\u7684\u5224\u65b7\u6e96\u7e69\u5ea6\u3002\u800c\u6211\u5176\u5be6\u6c92\u6709\uff0c\u4e5f\u7576\u7136\u6c92\u6709\u9592\u60c5\u9038\u81f4\u548c\u8208\u8da3\u9019\u6a23\u505a\u3002\u6211\u53ea\u662f\u6839\u64da\u90a3\u4e00\u5929\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u5c31\u89ba\u5f97\u5b83\u4e0d\u6e96\u78ba\u3002\u95dc\u9375\u554f\u984c\u5728\u65bc\u6211\u89ba\u5f97\u662f\u300c\u5b83\u4e0d\u6e96\u78ba\u300d\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u300c\u90a320%\u767c\u751f\u4e86\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u662f&lt;&lt;\u8d85\u7d1a\u9810\u6e2c Superforecasting&gt;\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u5e36\u7d66\u6211\u7684\u806f\u60f3\u3002\u6211\u5011\u5f88\u591a\u6642\u5019\u6703\u7528\u7d50\u679c\u672c\u8eab\u53bb\u5224\u65b7\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\u6216\u4e00\u500b\u6c7a\u5b9a\u662f\u5426\u6b63\u78ba\u6216\u5408\u7406\u3002\u800c\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\u9019\u500b\u4e16\u754c\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u6982\u7387\u5206\u4f48\u7684\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u4e8b\u60c5\u90fd\u6c92\u6709\u7d55\u5c0d\uff0c\u5728\u6295\u8cc7\u4e0a\u4e5f\u5927\u6982\u6c92\u6709\u6982\u7387\u70ba100%\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\uff0e\u6240\u4ee5\u6709\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u6211\u53ef\u80fd\u57fa\u65bc\u4e00\u7b46\u6295\u8cc7\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u70ba80%\uff0c\u8ce0\u7387\u4e5f\u4e0d\u932f\u800c\u4e0b\u6ce8\uff0c\u4f46\u6700\u7d42\u90a320%\u767c\u751f\u4e86\uff0c\u8a72\u7b46\u6295\u8cc7\u5931\u6557\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u6211\u8981\u56e0\u6b64\u5224\u65b7\u81ea\u5df1\u662f\u932f\u8aa4\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u300c\u90a320%\u767c\u751f\u4e86\u300d\uff1f\u53cd\u904e\u4f86\uff0c\u6211\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e86\u4e00\u7b46\u6295\u8cc7\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u5be6\u969b\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f20%\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4e0b\u5927\u6ce8\u7136\u5f8c\u8d0f\u4e86\u5927\u9322\uff0c\u6211\u9019\u500b\u6c7a\u5b9a\u662f\u5426\u6b63\u78ba\u548c\u660e\u667a\u7684\uff1f\u9019\u500b\u662f\u503c\u5f97\u601d\u8003\u7684\u554f\u984c\u3002\u7d50\u679c\u5c0e\u5411\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u4f7f\u6211\u5f80\u5f8c\u7e7c\u7e8c\u7528\u540c\u6a23\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u62bc\u6ce8\u572820%\u7684\u6210\u529f\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u80a1\u50f9\u6709\u6642\u5019\u4e5f\u662f\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u80a1\u50f9\u96a8\u6a5f\u6027\u6703\u66f4\u5f37\uff0c\u5728\u9019\u500b\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u5c0d\u8207\u932f\u6703\u5f88\u96e3\u8fa8\u5225\u51fa\u4f86\u3002\u80a1\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u4ee3\u8868\u6211\u5c31\u662f\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\uff1f\u7406\u8ad6\u4e0a\u80a1\u50f9\u5347\u4e86\uff0c\u8cfa\u9322\u5c31\u662f\u738b\u9053\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5176\u5be6\u6709\u56db\u500b\u60c5\u6cc1\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>(i) \u4f60\u662f\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\uff0c\u80a1\u50f9\u5347\u4e86\uff1b<br \/>\n(ii) \u4f60\u662f\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\uff0c\u80a1\u50f9\u8dcc\u4e86\uff1b<br \/>\n(iii) \u4f60\u662f\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\uff0c\u80a1\u50f9\u9084\u662f\u8dcc\u4e86\uff1b<br \/>\n(iv) \u4f60\u662f\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\uff0c\u80a1\u50f9\u9084\u662f\u5347\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6700\u96e3\u662f\u627f\u8a8d(iii)\u548c(iv)\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4e00\u822c\u5728\u80a1\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\uff0f\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e0b\u76f4\u89ba\u90fd\u6703\u544a\u8a34\u81ea\u5df1\u505a\u5c0d\uff0f\u505a\u932f\u4e86\u3002\u6211\u5011\u5f88\u96e3\u5c0d\u81ea\u5df1\u8aaa\uff1a\u300c\u4e0d\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u80a1\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\u4e86\uff0c\u6211\u8cfa\u4e86\u9322\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u5be6\u6211\u662f\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\uff0c\u6211\u9084\u662f\u8981\u53bb\u53cd\u601d\u3002\u300d\u6211\u5011\u6bd4\u8f03\u5bb9\u6613\u60f3\uff1a\u300c\u6211\u8cfa\u9322\u4e86\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u5c31\u662f\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\u3002\u300d \u4f46\u662f\u7528\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8cfa\u4e86\u9322\uff0c\u7528\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8f38\u4e86\u9322\uff0c\u662f\u7d55\u5c0d\u6709\u6a5f\u6703\u767c\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u3002\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u6210\u529f\u6216\u5931\u6557\u90fd\u5177\u5099\u5fc5\u7136\u56e0\u7d20\u548c\u5076\u7136\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u6709\u6642\u5076\u7136\u56e0\u7d20\u6703\u4f54\u4e0a\u98a8\u3002\u82e5\u679c\u6df7\u6dc6\u5c0d\u932f\u8207\u734e\u61f2\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u6b78\u56e0\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u8a71\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u4f7f\u5f80\u5f8c\u7684\u5224\u65b7\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u7cdf\u7cd5\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u5f71\u97ff\u9577\u671f\u7684\u8cfa\u9322\u6210\u679c\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u6700\u597d\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u8aa0\u5be6\u5730\u8a18\u9304\u548c\u56de\u9867\u81ea\u5df1\u904e\u5f80\u6bcf\u7b46\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u8cb7\u5165\u908f\u8f2f\u4ee5\u53ca\u53cd\u8986\u601d\u8003\u6295\u8cc7\u7d50\u679c\u7684\u6210\u56e0\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u53ea\u6839\u64da\u7d50\u679c\u7684\u767c\u751f\u53bb\u5b9a\u8ad6\u81ea\u5df1\u5c0d\u932f\uff0c\u53bb\u4e0d\u65b7\u4fee\u6539\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u9ad4\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5353\u7a4e\u59ff\uff0c\u6301\u8b49\u76e3\u6703\u6301\u724c\u4eba\u58eb\uff0c\u535a\u7acb\u7814\u7a76\u5718\u968a\/\u4e2d\u539f\u8cc7\u7522\u7ba1\u7406\u5206\u6790\u54e1<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u8a18\u5f97\u53bb\u5e74\u8a66\u904e\u6709\u4e00\u5929\u6e96\u5099\u51fa\u767c\u53bb\u884c\u5c71\uff0c\u51fa\u767c\u524d\u5929\u6c23\u4ecd\u4e0d\u932f\uff0c\u67e5\u95b1\u5929\u6587\u53f0\u7db2\u9801\u770b\u5230\u7576\u65e5\u964d\u96e8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f20%\uff0c\u65bc\u662f\u6211\u4fbf\u653e\u5fc3\u6109\u5feb\u5730\u51fa\u767c\u4e86\u3002\u6700\u5f8c\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u662f\u6574\u500b\u904e\u7a0b\u53ea\u670920%\u7684\u6642\u9593\u6c92\u6709\u4e0b\u96e8\uff0c\u5e78\u597d\u6211\u51fa\u767c\u524d\u9084\u662f\u6709\u628a\u5098\u653e\u9032\u80cc\u5305\u88e1\u3002\u65bc\u662f\u6211\u7576\u65e5\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u7d50\u8ad6\u662f\uff1a\u5929\u6587\u53f0\u7684\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\u4e0d\u6e96\u78ba\u3002 \u4f46\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u9019\u6a23\u5462\uff1f\u5982\u679c\u5b83\u8aaa\u964d\u96e8\u6982\u7387\u662f0%\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u6211\u7684\u7d50\u8ad6\u6c92\u6709\u554f\u984c\u3002\u5176\u5be6\u964d\u96e8\u6982\u7387\u662f20%\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u610f\u5473\u4e0d\u964d\u96e8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f80%\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u7d55\u5c0d\u4e0d\u6703\u4e0b\u96e8\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u53ef\u60dc\u6700\u5f8c\u662f\u90a320%\u767c\u751f\u4e86\u3002\u90a3\u9ebc\u5982\u4f55\u624d\u80fd\u8aaa\u5b83\u7684\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\u4e0d\u6e96\u78ba\u5462\uff1f\u5c31\u662f\u6bcf\u5929\u90fd\u770b\u4e00\u6b21\u964d\u96e8\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u6bcf\u5929\u90fd\u770b\u770b\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u4e0b\u96e8\uff0c\u9023\u7e8c\u6578\u500b\u6708\u4fbf\u6703\u5927\u81f4\u5ba2\u89c0\u770b\u5230\u5b83\u7684\u5224\u65b7\u6e96\u7e69\u5ea6\u3002\u800c\u6211\u5176\u5be6\u6c92\u6709\uff0c\u4e5f\u7576\u7136\u6c92\u6709\u9592\u60c5\u9038\u81f4\u548c\u8208\u8da3\u9019\u6a23\u505a\u3002\u6211\u53ea\u662f\u6839\u64da\u90a3\u4e00\u5929\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u5c31\u89ba\u5f97\u5b83\u4e0d\u6e96\u78ba\u3002\u95dc\u9375\u554f\u984c\u5728\u65bc\u6211\u89ba\u5f97\u662f\u300c\u5b83\u4e0d\u6e96\u78ba\u300d\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u300c\u90a320%\u767c\u751f\u4e86\u300d\u3002 \u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u662f&lt;&lt;\u8d85\u7d1a\u9810\u6e2c Superforecasting&gt;\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u5e36\u7d66\u6211\u7684\u806f\u60f3\u3002\u6211\u5011\u5f88\u591a\u6642\u5019\u6703\u7528\u7d50\u679c\u672c\u8eab\u53bb\u5224\u65b7\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\u6216\u4e00\u500b\u6c7a\u5b9a\u662f\u5426\u6b63\u78ba\u6216\u5408\u7406\u3002\u800c\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\u9019\u500b\u4e16\u754c\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u6982\u7387\u5206\u4f48\u7684\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u4e8b\u60c5\u90fd\u6c92\u6709\u7d55\u5c0d\uff0c\u5728\u6295\u8cc7\u4e0a\u4e5f\u5927\u6982\u6c92\u6709\u6982\u7387\u70ba100%\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\uff0e\u6240\u4ee5\u6709\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u6211\u53ef\u80fd\u57fa\u65bc\u4e00\u7b46\u6295\u8cc7\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u70ba80%\uff0c\u8ce0\u7387\u4e5f\u4e0d\u932f\u800c\u4e0b\u6ce8\uff0c\u4f46\u6700\u7d42\u90a320%\u767c\u751f\u4e86\uff0c\u8a72\u7b46\u6295\u8cc7\u5931\u6557\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u6211\u8981\u56e0\u6b64\u5224\u65b7\u81ea\u5df1\u662f\u932f\u8aa4\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u300c\u90a320%\u767c\u751f\u4e86\u300d\uff1f\u53cd\u904e\u4f86\uff0c\u6211\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e86\u4e00\u7b46\u6295\u8cc7\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u5be6\u969b\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f20%\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4e0b\u5927\u6ce8\u7136\u5f8c\u8d0f\u4e86\u5927\u9322\uff0c\u6211\u9019\u500b\u6c7a\u5b9a\u662f\u5426\u6b63\u78ba\u548c\u660e\u667a\u7684\uff1f\u9019\u500b\u662f\u503c\u5f97\u601d\u8003\u7684\u554f\u984c\u3002\u7d50\u679c\u5c0e\u5411\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u4f7f\u6211\u5f80\u5f8c\u7e7c\u7e8c\u7528\u540c\u6a23\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u62bc\u6ce8\u572820%\u7684\u6210\u529f\u6982\u7387\u3002 \u80a1\u50f9\u6709\u6642\u5019\u4e5f\u662f\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u80a1\u50f9\u96a8\u6a5f\u6027\u6703\u66f4\u5f37\uff0c\u5728\u9019\u500b\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u5c0d\u8207\u932f\u6703\u5f88\u96e3\u8fa8\u5225\u51fa\u4f86\u3002\u80a1\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u4ee3\u8868\u6211\u5c31\u662f\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\uff1f\u7406\u8ad6\u4e0a\u80a1\u50f9\u5347\u4e86\uff0c\u8cfa\u9322\u5c31\u662f\u738b\u9053\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5176\u5be6\u6709\u56db\u500b\u60c5\u6cc1\uff1a (i) \u4f60\u662f\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\uff0c\u80a1\u50f9\u5347\u4e86\uff1b (ii) \u4f60\u662f\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\uff0c\u80a1\u50f9\u8dcc\u4e86\uff1b (iii) \u4f60\u662f\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\uff0c\u80a1\u50f9\u9084\u662f\u8dcc\u4e86\uff1b (iv) \u4f60\u662f\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\uff0c\u80a1\u50f9\u9084\u662f\u5347\u4e86\u3002 \u6700\u96e3\u662f\u627f\u8a8d(iii)\u548c(iv)\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4e00\u822c\u5728\u80a1\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\uff0f\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e0b\u76f4\u89ba\u90fd\u6703\u544a\u8a34\u81ea\u5df1\u505a\u5c0d\uff0f\u505a\u932f\u4e86\u3002\u6211\u5011\u5f88\u96e3\u5c0d\u81ea\u5df1\u8aaa\uff1a\u300c\u4e0d\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u80a1\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\u4e86\uff0c\u6211\u8cfa\u4e86\u9322\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u5be6\u6211\u662f\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\uff0c\u6211\u9084\u662f\u8981\u53bb\u53cd\u601d\u3002\u300d\u6211\u5011\u6bd4\u8f03\u5bb9\u6613\u60f3\uff1a\u300c\u6211\u8cfa\u9322\u4e86\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u5c31\u662f\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\u3002\u300d \u4f46\u662f\u7528\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8cfa\u4e86\u9322\uff0c\u7528\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8f38\u4e86\u9322\uff0c\u662f\u7d55\u5c0d\u6709\u6a5f\u6703\u767c\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u3002\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u6210\u529f\u6216\u5931\u6557\u90fd\u5177\u5099\u5fc5\u7136\u56e0\u7d20\u548c\u5076\u7136\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u6709\u6642\u5076\u7136\u56e0\u7d20\u6703\u4f54\u4e0a\u98a8\u3002\u82e5\u679c\u6df7\u6dc6\u5c0d\u932f\u8207\u734e\u61f2\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u6b78\u56e0\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u8a71\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u4f7f\u5f80\u5f8c\u7684\u5224\u65b7\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u7cdf\u7cd5\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u5f71\u97ff\u9577\u671f\u7684\u8cfa\u9322\u6210\u679c\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u6700\u597d\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u8aa0\u5be6\u5730\u8a18\u9304\u548c\u56de\u9867\u81ea\u5df1\u904e\u5f80\u6bcf\u7b46\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u8cb7\u5165\u908f\u8f2f\u4ee5\u53ca\u53cd\u8986\u601d\u8003\u6295\u8cc7\u7d50\u679c\u7684\u6210\u56e0\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u53ea\u6839\u64da\u7d50\u679c\u7684\u767c\u751f\u53bb\u5b9a\u8ad6\u81ea\u5df1\u5c0d\u932f\uff0c\u53bb\u4e0d\u65b7\u4fee\u6539\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u9ad4\u7cfb\u3002 \u5353\u7a4e\u59ff\uff0c\u6301\u8b49\u76e3\u6703\u6301\u724c\u4eba\u58eb\uff0c\u535a\u7acb\u7814\u7a76\u5718\u968a\/\u4e2d\u539f\u8cc7\u7522\u7ba1\u7406\u5206\u6790\u54e1<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":31266,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[47,49,57],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v17.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>\u6295\u8cc7\u6642\u5177\u5099\u300c\u6982\u7387\u601d\u7dad\u300d\u800c\u975e\u300c\u7d50\u679c\u5c0e\u5411\u300d\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027 - \u4e2d\u539f\u535a\u7acb<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/\u6295\u8cc7\u6642\u5177\u5099\u300c\u6982\u7387\u601d\u7dad\u300d\u800c\u975e\u300c\u7d50\u679c\u5c0e\u5411\u300d\u7684\u91cd\u8981\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u6295\u8cc7\u6642\u5177\u5099\u300c\u6982\u7387\u601d\u7dad\u300d\u800c\u975e\u300c\u7d50\u679c\u5c0e\u5411\u300d\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027 - \u4e2d\u539f\u535a\u7acb\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u8a18\u5f97\u53bb\u5e74\u8a66\u904e\u6709\u4e00\u5929\u6e96\u5099\u51fa\u767c\u53bb\u884c\u5c71\uff0c\u51fa\u767c\u524d\u5929\u6c23\u4ecd\u4e0d\u932f\uff0c\u67e5\u95b1\u5929\u6587\u53f0\u7db2\u9801\u770b\u5230\u7576\u65e5\u964d\u96e8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f20%\uff0c\u65bc\u662f\u6211\u4fbf\u653e\u5fc3\u6109\u5feb\u5730\u51fa\u767c\u4e86\u3002\u6700\u5f8c\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u662f\u6574\u500b\u904e\u7a0b\u53ea\u670920%\u7684\u6642\u9593\u6c92\u6709\u4e0b\u96e8\uff0c\u5e78\u597d\u6211\u51fa\u767c\u524d\u9084\u662f\u6709\u628a\u5098\u653e\u9032\u80cc\u5305\u88e1\u3002\u65bc\u662f\u6211\u7576\u65e5\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u7d50\u8ad6\u662f\uff1a\u5929\u6587\u53f0\u7684\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\u4e0d\u6e96\u78ba\u3002 \u4f46\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u9019\u6a23\u5462\uff1f\u5982\u679c\u5b83\u8aaa\u964d\u96e8\u6982\u7387\u662f0%\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u6211\u7684\u7d50\u8ad6\u6c92\u6709\u554f\u984c\u3002\u5176\u5be6\u964d\u96e8\u6982\u7387\u662f20%\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u610f\u5473\u4e0d\u964d\u96e8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f80%\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u7d55\u5c0d\u4e0d\u6703\u4e0b\u96e8\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u53ef\u60dc\u6700\u5f8c\u662f\u90a320%\u767c\u751f\u4e86\u3002\u90a3\u9ebc\u5982\u4f55\u624d\u80fd\u8aaa\u5b83\u7684\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\u4e0d\u6e96\u78ba\u5462\uff1f\u5c31\u662f\u6bcf\u5929\u90fd\u770b\u4e00\u6b21\u964d\u96e8\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u6bcf\u5929\u90fd\u770b\u770b\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u4e0b\u96e8\uff0c\u9023\u7e8c\u6578\u500b\u6708\u4fbf\u6703\u5927\u81f4\u5ba2\u89c0\u770b\u5230\u5b83\u7684\u5224\u65b7\u6e96\u7e69\u5ea6\u3002\u800c\u6211\u5176\u5be6\u6c92\u6709\uff0c\u4e5f\u7576\u7136\u6c92\u6709\u9592\u60c5\u9038\u81f4\u548c\u8208\u8da3\u9019\u6a23\u505a\u3002\u6211\u53ea\u662f\u6839\u64da\u90a3\u4e00\u5929\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u5c31\u89ba\u5f97\u5b83\u4e0d\u6e96\u78ba\u3002\u95dc\u9375\u554f\u984c\u5728\u65bc\u6211\u89ba\u5f97\u662f\u300c\u5b83\u4e0d\u6e96\u78ba\u300d\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u300c\u90a320%\u767c\u751f\u4e86\u300d\u3002 \u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u662f&lt;&lt;\u8d85\u7d1a\u9810\u6e2c Superforecasting&gt;\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u5e36\u7d66\u6211\u7684\u806f\u60f3\u3002\u6211\u5011\u5f88\u591a\u6642\u5019\u6703\u7528\u7d50\u679c\u672c\u8eab\u53bb\u5224\u65b7\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\u6216\u4e00\u500b\u6c7a\u5b9a\u662f\u5426\u6b63\u78ba\u6216\u5408\u7406\u3002\u800c\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\u9019\u500b\u4e16\u754c\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u6982\u7387\u5206\u4f48\u7684\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u4e8b\u60c5\u90fd\u6c92\u6709\u7d55\u5c0d\uff0c\u5728\u6295\u8cc7\u4e0a\u4e5f\u5927\u6982\u6c92\u6709\u6982\u7387\u70ba100%\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\uff0e\u6240\u4ee5\u6709\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u6211\u53ef\u80fd\u57fa\u65bc\u4e00\u7b46\u6295\u8cc7\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u70ba80%\uff0c\u8ce0\u7387\u4e5f\u4e0d\u932f\u800c\u4e0b\u6ce8\uff0c\u4f46\u6700\u7d42\u90a320%\u767c\u751f\u4e86\uff0c\u8a72\u7b46\u6295\u8cc7\u5931\u6557\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u6211\u8981\u56e0\u6b64\u5224\u65b7\u81ea\u5df1\u662f\u932f\u8aa4\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u300c\u90a320%\u767c\u751f\u4e86\u300d\uff1f\u53cd\u904e\u4f86\uff0c\u6211\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e86\u4e00\u7b46\u6295\u8cc7\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u5be6\u969b\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f20%\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4e0b\u5927\u6ce8\u7136\u5f8c\u8d0f\u4e86\u5927\u9322\uff0c\u6211\u9019\u500b\u6c7a\u5b9a\u662f\u5426\u6b63\u78ba\u548c\u660e\u667a\u7684\uff1f\u9019\u500b\u662f\u503c\u5f97\u601d\u8003\u7684\u554f\u984c\u3002\u7d50\u679c\u5c0e\u5411\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u4f7f\u6211\u5f80\u5f8c\u7e7c\u7e8c\u7528\u540c\u6a23\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u62bc\u6ce8\u572820%\u7684\u6210\u529f\u6982\u7387\u3002 \u80a1\u50f9\u6709\u6642\u5019\u4e5f\u662f\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u80a1\u50f9\u96a8\u6a5f\u6027\u6703\u66f4\u5f37\uff0c\u5728\u9019\u500b\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u5c0d\u8207\u932f\u6703\u5f88\u96e3\u8fa8\u5225\u51fa\u4f86\u3002\u80a1\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u4ee3\u8868\u6211\u5c31\u662f\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\uff1f\u7406\u8ad6\u4e0a\u80a1\u50f9\u5347\u4e86\uff0c\u8cfa\u9322\u5c31\u662f\u738b\u9053\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5176\u5be6\u6709\u56db\u500b\u60c5\u6cc1\uff1a (i) \u4f60\u662f\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\uff0c\u80a1\u50f9\u5347\u4e86\uff1b (ii) \u4f60\u662f\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\uff0c\u80a1\u50f9\u8dcc\u4e86\uff1b (iii) \u4f60\u662f\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\uff0c\u80a1\u50f9\u9084\u662f\u8dcc\u4e86\uff1b (iv) \u4f60\u662f\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\uff0c\u80a1\u50f9\u9084\u662f\u5347\u4e86\u3002 \u6700\u96e3\u662f\u627f\u8a8d(iii)\u548c(iv)\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4e00\u822c\u5728\u80a1\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\uff0f\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e0b\u76f4\u89ba\u90fd\u6703\u544a\u8a34\u81ea\u5df1\u505a\u5c0d\uff0f\u505a\u932f\u4e86\u3002\u6211\u5011\u5f88\u96e3\u5c0d\u81ea\u5df1\u8aaa\uff1a\u300c\u4e0d\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u80a1\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\u4e86\uff0c\u6211\u8cfa\u4e86\u9322\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u5be6\u6211\u662f\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\uff0c\u6211\u9084\u662f\u8981\u53bb\u53cd\u601d\u3002\u300d\u6211\u5011\u6bd4\u8f03\u5bb9\u6613\u60f3\uff1a\u300c\u6211\u8cfa\u9322\u4e86\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u5c31\u662f\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\u3002\u300d \u4f46\u662f\u7528\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8cfa\u4e86\u9322\uff0c\u7528\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8f38\u4e86\u9322\uff0c\u662f\u7d55\u5c0d\u6709\u6a5f\u6703\u767c\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u3002\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u6210\u529f\u6216\u5931\u6557\u90fd\u5177\u5099\u5fc5\u7136\u56e0\u7d20\u548c\u5076\u7136\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u6709\u6642\u5076\u7136\u56e0\u7d20\u6703\u4f54\u4e0a\u98a8\u3002\u82e5\u679c\u6df7\u6dc6\u5c0d\u932f\u8207\u734e\u61f2\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u6b78\u56e0\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u8a71\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u4f7f\u5f80\u5f8c\u7684\u5224\u65b7\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u7cdf\u7cd5\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u5f71\u97ff\u9577\u671f\u7684\u8cfa\u9322\u6210\u679c\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u6700\u597d\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u8aa0\u5be6\u5730\u8a18\u9304\u548c\u56de\u9867\u81ea\u5df1\u904e\u5f80\u6bcf\u7b46\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u8cb7\u5165\u908f\u8f2f\u4ee5\u53ca\u53cd\u8986\u601d\u8003\u6295\u8cc7\u7d50\u679c\u7684\u6210\u56e0\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u53ea\u6839\u64da\u7d50\u679c\u7684\u767c\u751f\u53bb\u5b9a\u8ad6\u81ea\u5df1\u5c0d\u932f\uff0c\u53bb\u4e0d\u65b7\u4fee\u6539\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u9ad4\u7cfb\u3002 \u5353\u7a4e\u59ff\uff0c\u6301\u8b49\u76e3\u6703\u6301\u724c\u4eba\u58eb\uff0c\u535a\u7acb\u7814\u7a76\u5718\u968a\/\u4e2d\u539f\u8cc7\u7522\u7ba1\u7406\u5206\u6790\u54e1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/\u6295\u8cc7\u6642\u5177\u5099\u300c\u6982\u7387\u601d\u7dad\u300d\u800c\u975e\u300c\u7d50\u679c\u5c0e\u5411\u300d\u7684\u91cd\u8981\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"\u4e2d\u539f\u535a\u7acb\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-07-19T11:01:50+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-07-19T11:01:51+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/11.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1575\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"937\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"\u4e2d\u539f\u535a\u7acb\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/\",\"name\":\"\\u4e2d\\u539f\\u535a\\u7acb\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e6%99%82%e5%85%b7%e5%82%99%e3%80%8c%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87%e6%80%9d%e7%b6%ad%e3%80%8d%e8%80%8c%e9%9d%9e%e3%80%8c%e7%b5%90%e6%9e%9c%e5%b0%8e%e5%90%91%e3%80%8d%e7%9a%84%e9%87%8d%e8%a6%81\/#primaryimage\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/11.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/11.jpg\",\"width\":1575,\"height\":937},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e6%99%82%e5%85%b7%e5%82%99%e3%80%8c%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87%e6%80%9d%e7%b6%ad%e3%80%8d%e8%80%8c%e9%9d%9e%e3%80%8c%e7%b5%90%e6%9e%9c%e5%b0%8e%e5%90%91%e3%80%8d%e7%9a%84%e9%87%8d%e8%a6%81\/#webpage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e6%99%82%e5%85%b7%e5%82%99%e3%80%8c%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87%e6%80%9d%e7%b6%ad%e3%80%8d%e8%80%8c%e9%9d%9e%e3%80%8c%e7%b5%90%e6%9e%9c%e5%b0%8e%e5%90%91%e3%80%8d%e7%9a%84%e9%87%8d%e8%a6%81\/\",\"name\":\"\\u6295\\u8cc7\\u6642\\u5177\\u5099\\u300c\\u6982\\u7387\\u601d\\u7dad\\u300d\\u800c\\u975e\\u300c\\u7d50\\u679c\\u5c0e\\u5411\\u300d\\u7684\\u91cd\\u8981\\u6027 - \\u4e2d\\u539f\\u535a\\u7acb\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e6%99%82%e5%85%b7%e5%82%99%e3%80%8c%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87%e6%80%9d%e7%b6%ad%e3%80%8d%e8%80%8c%e9%9d%9e%e3%80%8c%e7%b5%90%e6%9e%9c%e5%b0%8e%e5%90%91%e3%80%8d%e7%9a%84%e9%87%8d%e8%a6%81\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-07-19T11:01:50+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-07-19T11:01:51+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/#\/schema\/person\/b09221196b6f022987adcb3f24c53c57\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e6%99%82%e5%85%b7%e5%82%99%e3%80%8c%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87%e6%80%9d%e7%b6%ad%e3%80%8d%e8%80%8c%e9%9d%9e%e3%80%8c%e7%b5%90%e6%9e%9c%e5%b0%8e%e5%90%91%e3%80%8d%e7%9a%84%e9%87%8d%e8%a6%81\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e6%99%82%e5%85%b7%e5%82%99%e3%80%8c%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87%e6%80%9d%e7%b6%ad%e3%80%8d%e8%80%8c%e9%9d%9e%e3%80%8c%e7%b5%90%e6%9e%9c%e5%b0%8e%e5%90%91%e3%80%8d%e7%9a%84%e9%87%8d%e8%a6%81\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e6%99%82%e5%85%b7%e5%82%99%e3%80%8c%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87%e6%80%9d%e7%b6%ad%e3%80%8d%e8%80%8c%e9%9d%9e%e3%80%8c%e7%b5%90%e6%9e%9c%e5%b0%8e%e5%90%91%e3%80%8d%e7%9a%84%e9%87%8d%e8%a6%81\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"\\u6295\\u8cc7\\u6642\\u5177\\u5099\\u300c\\u6982\\u7387\\u601d\\u7dad\\u300d\\u800c\\u975e\\u300c\\u7d50\\u679c\\u5c0e\\u5411\\u300d\\u7684\\u91cd\\u8981\\u6027\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/#\/schema\/person\/b09221196b6f022987adcb3f24c53c57\",\"name\":\"\\u4e2d\\u539f\\u535a\\u7acb\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/#personlogo\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/b2a89a886ee71e2ea8b9e8245b38d422?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/b2a89a886ee71e2ea8b9e8245b38d422?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"\\u4e2d\\u539f\\u535a\\u7acb\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/author\/oceanic_editor\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"\u6295\u8cc7\u6642\u5177\u5099\u300c\u6982\u7387\u601d\u7dad\u300d\u800c\u975e\u300c\u7d50\u679c\u5c0e\u5411\u300d\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027 - \u4e2d\u539f\u535a\u7acb","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/\u6295\u8cc7\u6642\u5177\u5099\u300c\u6982\u7387\u601d\u7dad\u300d\u800c\u975e\u300c\u7d50\u679c\u5c0e\u5411\u300d\u7684\u91cd\u8981\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"\u6295\u8cc7\u6642\u5177\u5099\u300c\u6982\u7387\u601d\u7dad\u300d\u800c\u975e\u300c\u7d50\u679c\u5c0e\u5411\u300d\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027 - \u4e2d\u539f\u535a\u7acb","og_description":"\u8a18\u5f97\u53bb\u5e74\u8a66\u904e\u6709\u4e00\u5929\u6e96\u5099\u51fa\u767c\u53bb\u884c\u5c71\uff0c\u51fa\u767c\u524d\u5929\u6c23\u4ecd\u4e0d\u932f\uff0c\u67e5\u95b1\u5929\u6587\u53f0\u7db2\u9801\u770b\u5230\u7576\u65e5\u964d\u96e8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f20%\uff0c\u65bc\u662f\u6211\u4fbf\u653e\u5fc3\u6109\u5feb\u5730\u51fa\u767c\u4e86\u3002\u6700\u5f8c\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u662f\u6574\u500b\u904e\u7a0b\u53ea\u670920%\u7684\u6642\u9593\u6c92\u6709\u4e0b\u96e8\uff0c\u5e78\u597d\u6211\u51fa\u767c\u524d\u9084\u662f\u6709\u628a\u5098\u653e\u9032\u80cc\u5305\u88e1\u3002\u65bc\u662f\u6211\u7576\u65e5\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u7d50\u8ad6\u662f\uff1a\u5929\u6587\u53f0\u7684\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\u4e0d\u6e96\u78ba\u3002 \u4f46\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u9019\u6a23\u5462\uff1f\u5982\u679c\u5b83\u8aaa\u964d\u96e8\u6982\u7387\u662f0%\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u6211\u7684\u7d50\u8ad6\u6c92\u6709\u554f\u984c\u3002\u5176\u5be6\u964d\u96e8\u6982\u7387\u662f20%\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u610f\u5473\u4e0d\u964d\u96e8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f80%\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u7d55\u5c0d\u4e0d\u6703\u4e0b\u96e8\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u53ef\u60dc\u6700\u5f8c\u662f\u90a320%\u767c\u751f\u4e86\u3002\u90a3\u9ebc\u5982\u4f55\u624d\u80fd\u8aaa\u5b83\u7684\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\u4e0d\u6e96\u78ba\u5462\uff1f\u5c31\u662f\u6bcf\u5929\u90fd\u770b\u4e00\u6b21\u964d\u96e8\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u6bcf\u5929\u90fd\u770b\u770b\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u4e0b\u96e8\uff0c\u9023\u7e8c\u6578\u500b\u6708\u4fbf\u6703\u5927\u81f4\u5ba2\u89c0\u770b\u5230\u5b83\u7684\u5224\u65b7\u6e96\u7e69\u5ea6\u3002\u800c\u6211\u5176\u5be6\u6c92\u6709\uff0c\u4e5f\u7576\u7136\u6c92\u6709\u9592\u60c5\u9038\u81f4\u548c\u8208\u8da3\u9019\u6a23\u505a\u3002\u6211\u53ea\u662f\u6839\u64da\u90a3\u4e00\u5929\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u5c31\u89ba\u5f97\u5b83\u4e0d\u6e96\u78ba\u3002\u95dc\u9375\u554f\u984c\u5728\u65bc\u6211\u89ba\u5f97\u662f\u300c\u5b83\u4e0d\u6e96\u78ba\u300d\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u300c\u90a320%\u767c\u751f\u4e86\u300d\u3002 \u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u662f&lt;&lt;\u8d85\u7d1a\u9810\u6e2c Superforecasting&gt;\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u5e36\u7d66\u6211\u7684\u806f\u60f3\u3002\u6211\u5011\u5f88\u591a\u6642\u5019\u6703\u7528\u7d50\u679c\u672c\u8eab\u53bb\u5224\u65b7\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\u6216\u4e00\u500b\u6c7a\u5b9a\u662f\u5426\u6b63\u78ba\u6216\u5408\u7406\u3002\u800c\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\u9019\u500b\u4e16\u754c\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u6982\u7387\u5206\u4f48\u7684\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u4e8b\u60c5\u90fd\u6c92\u6709\u7d55\u5c0d\uff0c\u5728\u6295\u8cc7\u4e0a\u4e5f\u5927\u6982\u6c92\u6709\u6982\u7387\u70ba100%\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\uff0e\u6240\u4ee5\u6709\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u6211\u53ef\u80fd\u57fa\u65bc\u4e00\u7b46\u6295\u8cc7\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u70ba80%\uff0c\u8ce0\u7387\u4e5f\u4e0d\u932f\u800c\u4e0b\u6ce8\uff0c\u4f46\u6700\u7d42\u90a320%\u767c\u751f\u4e86\uff0c\u8a72\u7b46\u6295\u8cc7\u5931\u6557\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u6211\u8981\u56e0\u6b64\u5224\u65b7\u81ea\u5df1\u662f\u932f\u8aa4\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u300c\u90a320%\u767c\u751f\u4e86\u300d\uff1f\u53cd\u904e\u4f86\uff0c\u6211\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e86\u4e00\u7b46\u6295\u8cc7\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u5be6\u969b\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f20%\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4e0b\u5927\u6ce8\u7136\u5f8c\u8d0f\u4e86\u5927\u9322\uff0c\u6211\u9019\u500b\u6c7a\u5b9a\u662f\u5426\u6b63\u78ba\u548c\u660e\u667a\u7684\uff1f\u9019\u500b\u662f\u503c\u5f97\u601d\u8003\u7684\u554f\u984c\u3002\u7d50\u679c\u5c0e\u5411\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u4f7f\u6211\u5f80\u5f8c\u7e7c\u7e8c\u7528\u540c\u6a23\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u62bc\u6ce8\u572820%\u7684\u6210\u529f\u6982\u7387\u3002 \u80a1\u50f9\u6709\u6642\u5019\u4e5f\u662f\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u80a1\u50f9\u96a8\u6a5f\u6027\u6703\u66f4\u5f37\uff0c\u5728\u9019\u500b\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u5c0d\u8207\u932f\u6703\u5f88\u96e3\u8fa8\u5225\u51fa\u4f86\u3002\u80a1\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u4ee3\u8868\u6211\u5c31\u662f\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\uff1f\u7406\u8ad6\u4e0a\u80a1\u50f9\u5347\u4e86\uff0c\u8cfa\u9322\u5c31\u662f\u738b\u9053\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5176\u5be6\u6709\u56db\u500b\u60c5\u6cc1\uff1a (i) \u4f60\u662f\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\uff0c\u80a1\u50f9\u5347\u4e86\uff1b (ii) \u4f60\u662f\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\uff0c\u80a1\u50f9\u8dcc\u4e86\uff1b (iii) \u4f60\u662f\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\uff0c\u80a1\u50f9\u9084\u662f\u8dcc\u4e86\uff1b (iv) \u4f60\u662f\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\uff0c\u80a1\u50f9\u9084\u662f\u5347\u4e86\u3002 \u6700\u96e3\u662f\u627f\u8a8d(iii)\u548c(iv)\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4e00\u822c\u5728\u80a1\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\uff0f\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e0b\u76f4\u89ba\u90fd\u6703\u544a\u8a34\u81ea\u5df1\u505a\u5c0d\uff0f\u505a\u932f\u4e86\u3002\u6211\u5011\u5f88\u96e3\u5c0d\u81ea\u5df1\u8aaa\uff1a\u300c\u4e0d\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u80a1\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\u4e86\uff0c\u6211\u8cfa\u4e86\u9322\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u5be6\u6211\u662f\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\uff0c\u6211\u9084\u662f\u8981\u53bb\u53cd\u601d\u3002\u300d\u6211\u5011\u6bd4\u8f03\u5bb9\u6613\u60f3\uff1a\u300c\u6211\u8cfa\u9322\u4e86\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u5c31\u662f\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\u3002\u300d \u4f46\u662f\u7528\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8cfa\u4e86\u9322\uff0c\u7528\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8f38\u4e86\u9322\uff0c\u662f\u7d55\u5c0d\u6709\u6a5f\u6703\u767c\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u3002\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u6210\u529f\u6216\u5931\u6557\u90fd\u5177\u5099\u5fc5\u7136\u56e0\u7d20\u548c\u5076\u7136\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u6709\u6642\u5076\u7136\u56e0\u7d20\u6703\u4f54\u4e0a\u98a8\u3002\u82e5\u679c\u6df7\u6dc6\u5c0d\u932f\u8207\u734e\u61f2\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u6b78\u56e0\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u8a71\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u4f7f\u5f80\u5f8c\u7684\u5224\u65b7\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u7cdf\u7cd5\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u5f71\u97ff\u9577\u671f\u7684\u8cfa\u9322\u6210\u679c\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u6700\u597d\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u8aa0\u5be6\u5730\u8a18\u9304\u548c\u56de\u9867\u81ea\u5df1\u904e\u5f80\u6bcf\u7b46\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u8cb7\u5165\u908f\u8f2f\u4ee5\u53ca\u53cd\u8986\u601d\u8003\u6295\u8cc7\u7d50\u679c\u7684\u6210\u56e0\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u53ea\u6839\u64da\u7d50\u679c\u7684\u767c\u751f\u53bb\u5b9a\u8ad6\u81ea\u5df1\u5c0d\u932f\uff0c\u53bb\u4e0d\u65b7\u4fee\u6539\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u9ad4\u7cfb\u3002 \u5353\u7a4e\u59ff\uff0c\u6301\u8b49\u76e3\u6703\u6301\u724c\u4eba\u58eb\uff0c\u535a\u7acb\u7814\u7a76\u5718\u968a\/\u4e2d\u539f\u8cc7\u7522\u7ba1\u7406\u5206\u6790\u54e1","og_url":"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/\u6295\u8cc7\u6642\u5177\u5099\u300c\u6982\u7387\u601d\u7dad\u300d\u800c\u975e\u300c\u7d50\u679c\u5c0e\u5411\u300d\u7684\u91cd\u8981\/","og_site_name":"\u4e2d\u539f\u535a\u7acb","article_published_time":"2023-07-19T11:01:50+00:00","article_modified_time":"2023-07-19T11:01:51+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1575,"height":937,"url":"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/11.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"\u4e2d\u539f\u535a\u7acb","Est. reading time":"1 minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/","name":"\u4e2d\u539f\u535a\u7acb","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"ImageObject","@id":"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e6%99%82%e5%85%b7%e5%82%99%e3%80%8c%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87%e6%80%9d%e7%b6%ad%e3%80%8d%e8%80%8c%e9%9d%9e%e3%80%8c%e7%b5%90%e6%9e%9c%e5%b0%8e%e5%90%91%e3%80%8d%e7%9a%84%e9%87%8d%e8%a6%81\/#primaryimage","inLanguage":"en-US","url":"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/11.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/11.jpg","width":1575,"height":937},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e6%99%82%e5%85%b7%e5%82%99%e3%80%8c%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87%e6%80%9d%e7%b6%ad%e3%80%8d%e8%80%8c%e9%9d%9e%e3%80%8c%e7%b5%90%e6%9e%9c%e5%b0%8e%e5%90%91%e3%80%8d%e7%9a%84%e9%87%8d%e8%a6%81\/#webpage","url":"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e6%99%82%e5%85%b7%e5%82%99%e3%80%8c%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87%e6%80%9d%e7%b6%ad%e3%80%8d%e8%80%8c%e9%9d%9e%e3%80%8c%e7%b5%90%e6%9e%9c%e5%b0%8e%e5%90%91%e3%80%8d%e7%9a%84%e9%87%8d%e8%a6%81\/","name":"\u6295\u8cc7\u6642\u5177\u5099\u300c\u6982\u7387\u601d\u7dad\u300d\u800c\u975e\u300c\u7d50\u679c\u5c0e\u5411\u300d\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027 - \u4e2d\u539f\u535a\u7acb","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e6%99%82%e5%85%b7%e5%82%99%e3%80%8c%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87%e6%80%9d%e7%b6%ad%e3%80%8d%e8%80%8c%e9%9d%9e%e3%80%8c%e7%b5%90%e6%9e%9c%e5%b0%8e%e5%90%91%e3%80%8d%e7%9a%84%e9%87%8d%e8%a6%81\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2023-07-19T11:01:50+00:00","dateModified":"2023-07-19T11:01:51+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/#\/schema\/person\/b09221196b6f022987adcb3f24c53c57"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e6%99%82%e5%85%b7%e5%82%99%e3%80%8c%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87%e6%80%9d%e7%b6%ad%e3%80%8d%e8%80%8c%e9%9d%9e%e3%80%8c%e7%b5%90%e6%9e%9c%e5%b0%8e%e5%90%91%e3%80%8d%e7%9a%84%e9%87%8d%e8%a6%81\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e6%99%82%e5%85%b7%e5%82%99%e3%80%8c%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87%e6%80%9d%e7%b6%ad%e3%80%8d%e8%80%8c%e9%9d%9e%e3%80%8c%e7%b5%90%e6%9e%9c%e5%b0%8e%e5%90%91%e3%80%8d%e7%9a%84%e9%87%8d%e8%a6%81\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e6%99%82%e5%85%b7%e5%82%99%e3%80%8c%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87%e6%80%9d%e7%b6%ad%e3%80%8d%e8%80%8c%e9%9d%9e%e3%80%8c%e7%b5%90%e6%9e%9c%e5%b0%8e%e5%90%91%e3%80%8d%e7%9a%84%e9%87%8d%e8%a6%81\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"\u6295\u8cc7\u6642\u5177\u5099\u300c\u6982\u7387\u601d\u7dad\u300d\u800c\u975e\u300c\u7d50\u679c\u5c0e\u5411\u300d\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/#\/schema\/person\/b09221196b6f022987adcb3f24c53c57","name":"\u4e2d\u539f\u535a\u7acb","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","@id":"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/#personlogo","inLanguage":"en-US","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/b2a89a886ee71e2ea8b9e8245b38d422?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/b2a89a886ee71e2ea8b9e8245b38d422?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"\u4e2d\u539f\u535a\u7acb"},"url":"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/author\/oceanic_editor\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31265"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31265"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31265\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":31267,"href":"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31265\/revisions\/31267"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/31266"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31265"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31265"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31265"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}