{"id":31055,"date":"2023-03-22T17:30:43","date_gmt":"2023-03-22T09:30:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/?p=31055"},"modified":"2023-03-22T17:30:44","modified_gmt":"2023-03-22T09:30:44","slug":"%e8%8a%92%e6%a0%bc%e6%a7%93%e6%a1%bf%e5%a4%b1%e6%95%97%e7%9a%84%e5%95%9f%e7%a4%ba-%e5%85%a7%e5%ae%b9%e4%bf%ae%e6%ad%a3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/%e8%8a%92%e6%a0%bc%e6%a7%93%e6%a1%bf%e5%a4%b1%e6%95%97%e7%9a%84%e5%95%9f%e7%a4%ba-%e5%85%a7%e5%ae%b9%e4%bf%ae%e6%ad%a3\/","title":{"rendered":"\u8292\u683c\u69d3\u687f\u5931\u6557\u7684\u555f\u793a (\u5167\u5bb9\u4fee\u6b63)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u4e0a\u661f\u671f\u767c\u4f48\u4e86\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0(<a href=\"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/%E8%8A%92%E6%A0%BC%E4%BD%BF%E7%94%A8%E6%A7%93%E6%A1%BF%E5%A4%B1%E6%95%97%E7%9A%84%E5%95%9F%E7%A4%BA\/\">\u6309\u6b64<\/a>)\uff0c\u8b1b\u8ff0\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u62cd\u6a94\u8292\u683c\u4f7f\u7528\u69d3\u687f\u8cb7\u5165\u963f\u91cc\u5df4\u5df4\u5931\u6557\uff0c\u6709\u670b\u53cb\u6307\u51fa\u4e86\u6211\u7684\u5931\u8aa4\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4ed6\u5728\u963f\u91cc\u5df4\u5df4\u7684\u6301\u5009\u88ab\u5f37\u5236\u5e73\u5009\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u771f\u76f8\u3002\u6839\u64daDaily Journal \u4eca\u5e74\u80a1\u6771\u5927\u6703\u7684Transcript\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u5411\u8292\u683c\u63d0\u554f\u662f\u5426\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u69d3\u687f\u6642\uff0c\u5047\u8a2d\u4e86\u8292\u683c\u662f\u88ab\u903c\u8ce3\u51fa\u963f\u91cc\u5df4\u5df4\u6301\u80a1\u3002\u8292\u683c\u627f\u8a8d\u4e86\u69d3\u687f\u9019\u90e8\u5206\u6709\u6b64\u505a\u6cd5\uff0c\u5c0d\u88ab\u903c\u8ce3\u51fa\u963f\u91cc\u5df4\u5df4\u6301\u80a1\u6c92\u6709\u5426\u8a8d\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u6c92\u6709\u627f\u8a8d\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u963f\u91cc\u5df4\u5df4\u7684\u6301\u5009\u88ab\u5f37\u5236\u5e73\u5009\u4ecd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u662f\u4e8b\u5be6\uff0c\u5728\u6b64\u5c0d\u8aa4\u5c0e\u4e86\u8b80\u8005\u81f4\u6b49\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u6b64\u6211\u5148\u5f15\u7528\u4e00\u4e0b\u5728\u4eca\u5e74Daily Journal\u80a1\u6771\u5927\u6703\uff0c\u8292\u683c\u56de\u7b54\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u6709\u95dc\u8cfc\u8cb7\u963f\u91cc\u5df4\u5df4\u6642\u4f7f\u7528\u69d3\u687f\u7684\u63d0\u554f\uff1a<br \/>\n(Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/kingswell.substack.com\/p\/charlie-munger-q-and-a-2023-daily\">https:\/\/kingswell.substack.com\/p\/charlie-munger-q-and-a-2023-daily<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-31056\" src=\"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/11-300x107.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"552\" height=\"197\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/11-300x107.png 300w, https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/11-768x274.png 768w, https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/11-580x207.png 580w, https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/11-860x307.png 860w, https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/11.png 929w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 552px) 100vw, 552px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u5728\u9019\u4ef6\u4e8b\u4e0a\u4e3b\u8981\u72af\u4e86\u5148\u5165\u70ba\u4e3b\u7684\u932f\u8aa4\uff1a\u57fa\u65bc (i)\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u5728\u554f\u554f\u984c\u7684\u6642\u5019\u5047\u8a2d\u4e86\u8292\u683c\u88ab\u903c\u8ce3\u51fa\u963f\u91cc\u5df4\u5df4\u6301\u80a1\uff1b (ii) \u8292\u683c\u56de\u7b54\u4e86Yes\uff0c\u627f\u8a8d\u4e86\u4f7f\u7528\u69d3\u687f\uff0c\u4ea6\u6c92\u6709\u5426\u8a8d\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u63d0\u554f\u6642\u7684\u5047\u8a2d\u3002\u5118\u7ba1\u56de\u7b54\u7684Yes\u5176\u5be6\u53ea\u662f\u91dd\u5c0d\u4f7f\u7528\u69d3\u687f\u800c\u8a00\uff1b (iii) 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Journal\u80a1\u6771\u5927\u6703\u4e0a\u4e5f\u63d0\u904e\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u4eba\u61c9\u8a72\u907f\u514d\u4f7f\u7528\u69d3\u687f\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u8981\u907f\u514d\u4f7f\u7528\u69d3\u687f\u3002\u5118\u7ba1\u5728\u4f7f\u7528\u69d3\u687f\u9019\u4ef6\u4e8b\u4e0a\u9762\uff0c\u610f\u8b58\u5230\u81ea\u5df1\u662f\u61c9\u8a72\u907f\u514d\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u90a3\u4e00\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u4eba\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u771f\u6b63\u4e86\u89e3\u898f\u5247\u548c\u5f8c\u679c\u7684\u5c11\u90e8\u5206\u4eba\uff0c\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u81f3\u65bc\u4e0a\u661f\u671f\u767c\u4f48\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\u5c0d\u65bc\u4f7f\u7528\u77ed\u671f\u878d\u8cc7\u8cb7\u5165\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u6211\u4ecd\u4fdd\u7559\u539f\u5148\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u5373(i) \u5c31\u7b97\u5b89\u5168\u908a\u969b\u975e\u5e38\u660e\u986f\uff0c\u4ecd\u4e0d\u80fd\u6709\u80a1\u7968\u50f9\u683c\u4e0d\u6703\u518d\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u932f\u89ba (ii) 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\/>\n\u57f7\u7b46\u4e4b\u6642\uff0c\u535a\u7acb\u5ba2\u6236\u6301\u6709\u963f\u91cc\u5df4\u5df4(9988)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u4e0a\u661f\u671f\u767c\u4f48\u4e86\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0(\u6309\u6b64)\uff0c\u8b1b\u8ff0\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u62cd\u6a94\u8292\u683c\u4f7f\u7528\u69d3\u687f\u8cb7\u5165\u963f\u91cc\u5df4\u5df4\u5931\u6557\uff0c\u6709\u670b\u53cb\u6307\u51fa\u4e86\u6211\u7684\u5931\u8aa4\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4ed6\u5728\u963f\u91cc\u5df4\u5df4\u7684\u6301\u5009\u88ab\u5f37\u5236\u5e73\u5009\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u771f\u76f8\u3002\u6839\u64daDaily Journal \u4eca\u5e74\u80a1\u6771\u5927\u6703\u7684Transcript\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u5411\u8292\u683c\u63d0\u554f\u662f\u5426\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u69d3\u687f\u6642\uff0c\u5047\u8a2d\u4e86\u8292\u683c\u662f\u88ab\u903c\u8ce3\u51fa\u963f\u91cc\u5df4\u5df4\u6301\u80a1\u3002\u8292\u683c\u627f\u8a8d\u4e86\u69d3\u687f\u9019\u90e8\u5206\u6709\u6b64\u505a\u6cd5\uff0c\u5c0d\u88ab\u903c\u8ce3\u51fa\u963f\u91cc\u5df4\u5df4\u6301\u80a1\u6c92\u6709\u5426\u8a8d\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u6c92\u6709\u627f\u8a8d\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u963f\u91cc\u5df4\u5df4\u7684\u6301\u5009\u88ab\u5f37\u5236\u5e73\u5009\u4ecd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u662f\u4e8b\u5be6\uff0c\u5728\u6b64\u5c0d\u8aa4\u5c0e\u4e86\u8b80\u8005\u81f4\u6b49\u3002 \u5728\u6b64\u6211\u5148\u5f15\u7528\u4e00\u4e0b\u5728\u4eca\u5e74Daily Journal\u80a1\u6771\u5927\u6703\uff0c\u8292\u683c\u56de\u7b54\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u6709\u95dc\u8cfc\u8cb7\u963f\u91cc\u5df4\u5df4\u6642\u4f7f\u7528\u69d3\u687f\u7684\u63d0\u554f\uff1a (Source: https:\/\/kingswell.substack.com\/p\/charlie-munger-q-and-a-2023-daily) \u6211\u5728\u9019\u4ef6\u4e8b\u4e0a\u4e3b\u8981\u72af\u4e86\u5148\u5165\u70ba\u4e3b\u7684\u932f\u8aa4\uff1a\u57fa\u65bc (i)\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u5728\u554f\u554f\u984c\u7684\u6642\u5019\u5047\u8a2d\u4e86\u8292\u683c\u88ab\u903c\u8ce3\u51fa\u963f\u91cc\u5df4\u5df4\u6301\u80a1\uff1b (ii) \u8292\u683c\u56de\u7b54\u4e86Yes\uff0c\u627f\u8a8d\u4e86\u4f7f\u7528\u69d3\u687f\uff0c\u4ea6\u6c92\u6709\u5426\u8a8d\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u63d0\u554f\u6642\u7684\u5047\u8a2d\u3002\u5118\u7ba1\u56de\u7b54\u7684Yes\u5176\u5be6\u53ea\u662f\u91dd\u5c0d\u4f7f\u7528\u69d3\u687f\u800c\u8a00\uff1b (iii) \u8292\u683c\u6e1b\u6301\u963f\u91cc\u5df4\u5df4\u4e00\u534a\u7684\u90a3\u4e00\u5b63\u6b63\u597d\u9047\u4e0a\u963f\u91cc\u5df4\u5df4\u80a1\u50f9\u5927\u8dcc\u3002\u6211\u7531\u6b64\u63a8\u8ad6\u4e26\u8aa4\u7576\u4f5c\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u4e8b\u5be6\u3002 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