{"id":30620,"date":"2022-10-20T09:44:36","date_gmt":"2022-10-20T01:44:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/?p=30620"},"modified":"2024-08-05T16:16:40","modified_gmt":"2024-08-05T08:16:40","slug":"%e5%ae%8f%e8%a7%80%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e9%a0%90%e6%b8%ac%e5%b0%8d%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e8%82%a1%e7%a5%a8%e7%9c%9f%e7%9a%84%e4%b8%8d%e9%87%8d%e8%a6%81%e5%97%8e%ef%bc%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.centasec.com\/oceanic\/%e5%ae%8f%e8%a7%80%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e9%a0%90%e6%b8%ac%e5%b0%8d%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e8%82%a1%e7%a5%a8%e7%9c%9f%e7%9a%84%e4%b8%8d%e9%87%8d%e8%a6%81%e5%97%8e%ef%bc%9f\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u9810\u6e2c\u5c0d\u6295\u8cc7\u80a1\u7968\u771f\u7684\u4e0d\u91cd\u8981\u55ce\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u95b1\u8b80\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u6709\u95dc\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u66f8\u5f8c\uff0c\u767c\u73fe\u5f88\u591a\u6295\u8cc7\u5927\u5e2b\u90fd\u6703\u50be\u5411\u4e0d\u5c0d\u5b8f\u89c0\u9032\u884c\u9810\u6e2c\uff1a<\/p>\n

\u5df4\u83f2\u7279(Warren Buffett)\uff1a\u300c\u6211\u5011\u5c0d\u5229\u7387\u8b8a\u5316\u3001\u80a1\u5e02\u5c55\u671b\u3001\u7d93\u6fdf\u6216\u4efb\u4f55\u985e\u4f3c\u7684\u6771\u897f\u6c92\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n

\u67e5\u7406\u8292\u683c(Charlie Munger)\uff1a\u300c\u6211\u5011\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u6210\u529f\u9810\u6e2c\u4e86\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u624d\u6709\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u6210\u5c31\u7684\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n

\u970d\u83ef\u30fb\u99ac\u514b\u65af(Howard Marks)\uff1a\u300c\u6211\u5011\u61c9\u8a72\u628a\u6642\u9593\u7528\u5728\u5f9e\u53ef\u77e5\u7684\u884c\u696d\u3001\u4f01\u696d\u548c\u8b49\u5238\u4e2d\u767c\u73fe\u50f9\u503c\u4e0a\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u61c9\u8a72\u628a\u6c7a\u7b56\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u5c0d\u66f4\u52a0\u4e0d\u53ef\u77e5\u7684\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u548c\u5927\u5e02\u8868\u73fe\u7684\u731c\u6e2c\u4e0a\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n

\u8cbb\u96ea(Philip Arthur Fisher)\uff1a\u300c\u4eba\u985e\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u77e5\u8b58\u4e26\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u9810\u6e2c\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u8d70\u5411\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u628a\u9019\u5957\u65b9\u6cd5\u4ed8\u8af8\u5be6\u65bd\u3002\u9810\u6e2c\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u592a\u4f4e\u4e86\uff0c\u5be6\u5728\u4e0d\u61c9\u8a72\u5c31\u9019\u6a23\u5192\u96aa\u628a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5132\u84c4\u7528\u65bc\u6295\u8cc7\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n

\u9019\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u6703\u8b93\u4eba\u884d\u751f\u4e00\u7a2e\u89e3\u8b80\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a\u6295\u8cc7\u5927\u5e2b\u4e0d\u505a\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e0d\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n

\u53ef\u662f\u6703\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u53cd\u99c1\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\uff0c\u5e38\u898b\u4f8b\u5b50\u662f\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u80fd\u5920\u6709\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u6210\u529f\u6b63\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u751f\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u751f\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u662f\u4e0d\u6703\u6709\u9019\u500b\u6210\u5c31\u7684\uff0c\u4e26\u7531\u6b64\u8aaa\u660e\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002\u800c\u7576\u5206\u6790\u4e00\u9593\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u6700\u7d42\u4e5f\u8981\u8003\u616e\u5230\u5b8f\u89c0\u5c64\u9762\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u901a\u8139\u3001\u5229\u7387\u7b49\u8d70\u52e2\u4ee5\u53ca\u7d93\u6fdf\u666f\u6c23\u5ea6\u7684\u78ba\u80fd\u5920\u5c0d\u4e00\u9593\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u6536\u5165\u53ca\u6210\u672c\u3001\u501f\u8cb8\u7684\u96e3\u6613\u5ea6\u7b49\u9020\u6210\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u90a3\u9ebc\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u771f\u7684\u4e0d\u91cd\u8981\u55ce\uff1f\u4e0b\u9762\u5f9e\u970d\u83ef\u30fb\u99ac\u514b\u65af\u904e\u5f80\u7684\u5099\u5fd8\u9304\u5305\u62ec\u8fd1\u671f\u7684<<\u8a8d\u77e5\u7684\u932f\u89ba>>(The Illusion of Knowledge)\u4e2d\u7e7c\u7e8c\u7bc0\u9304\u4e00\u4e9b\u60f3\u6cd5\uff0c\u6709\u52a9\u89e3\u7b54\u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u300c\u554f\u984c\u5728\u65bc\uff0c\u6211\u8a8d\u70ba\u6c92\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u904e\u7a0b\u80fd\u5920\u59cb\u7d42\u5982\u4e00\u5730\u5c07\u5927\u91cf\u8207\u7d93\u6fdf\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u8b8a\u91cf\uff08\u8f38\u5165\uff09\u8f49\u5316\u70ba\u6709\u7528\u7684\u5b8f\u89c0\u9810\u6e2c\uff08\u8f38\u51fa\uff09\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n

\u300c\u6211\u60f3\u50cf\u5c0d\u65bc\u5927\u591a\u6578\u8ca1\u5bcc\u7ba1\u7406\u4eba\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u9810\u6e2c\u904e\u7a0b\u662f\u9019\u6a23\u7684\uff1a\u300e\u6211\u9810\u6e2c\u7d93\u6fdf\u6703\u51fa\u73feA\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u3002\u5982\u679cA\u767c\u751f\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u61c9\u8a72\u6703\u5448\u73feB\u3002\u5728\u9019\u500b\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u8868\u73fe\u61c9\u8a72\u662fC\u3002\u7136\u5f8c\u8868\u73fe\u6700\u597d\u7684\u677f\u584a\u61c9\u8a72\u6703\u662fD\uff0c\u800c\u80a1\u7968E\u7684\u80a1\u50f9\u6703\u5448\u73fe\u6700\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u300f\u7136\u5f8c\u6839\u64da\u9019\u500b\u60c5\u666f\u5efa\u7acb\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\uff0c\u4e26\u671f\u671b\u6703\u6709\u6700\u597d\u7684\u8868\u73fe\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f46E\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u6709\u591a\u5927\uff1f\u8acb\u8a18\u4f4fE\u4ee5A\u3001B\u3001C\u548cD\u70ba\u689d\u4ef6\u3002\u505a\u9810\u6e2c\u64c1\u67092\/3\u7684\u6b63\u78ba\u7387\u6703\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u4e86\u4e0d\u8d77\u7684\u6210\u5c31\u3002\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u4e94\u500b\u9810\u6e2c\u4e2d\u6bcf\u500b\u90fd\u670967%\u7684\u6b63\u78ba\u7387\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u4e94\u500b\u9810\u6e2c\u90fd\u662f\u6b63\u78ba\u4e26\u4e14\u80a1\u7968\u6309\u7167\u9810\u671f\u8868\u73fe\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u70ba13%\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n

\u300c\u6211\u7576\u7136\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u8a8d\u8b58\u6295\u8cc7\u754c\u7684\u6bcf\u500b\u4eba\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u6211\u6240\u77e5\u9053\u6216\u8a8d\u8b58\u7684\u4eba\u88e1\u9762\uff0c\u6211\u8a8d\u70ba\u53ea\u6709\u5f88\u5c11\u975e\u5e38\u6210\u529f\u7684\u300e\u5b8f\u89c0\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u300f\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n

\u300c\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u5b8f\u89c0\u524d\u666f\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u65e5\u5b50\u88e1\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u4f3c\u4e4e\u7dca\u7dca\u6293\u4f4f\u6bcf\u4f4d\u9810\u6e2c\u8005\u7684\u8a00\u8ad6\u3001\u5b8f\u89c0\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u7684\u884c\u52d5\u3002\u8207\u6211\u5f9e\u4e8b\u9019\u500b\u884c\u696d\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u73fe\u6642\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5b8f\u89c0\u56e0\u7d20\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u5207\uff0c\u4f01\u696d\u767c\u5c55\u53ea\u88ab\u8ce6\u4e88\u5c11\u91cf\u95dc\u6ce8\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n

\u300c\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u544a\u8a34\u904e\u6211\uff0c\u4ed6\u671f\u671b\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u8981\u7b26\u5408\u5169\u500b\u6a19\u6e96\uff1a\u4e00\u662f\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u4e8c\u662f\u53ef\u77e5\u3002\u9019\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u8aaa\u5b8f\u89c0\u9762\u4e0d\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u53ea\u6709\u6975\u5c11\u6578\u4eba\u80fd\u5920\u7cbe\u901a\u5b8f\u89c0\u9810\u6e2c\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n

\u5c31\u6b64\u56de\u7b54\u6a19\u984c\u4e2d\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff1a\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u91cd\u4e0d\u91cd\u8981\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u53ef\u77e5\u3002<\/p>\n

2008\u5e74\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u9810\u6e2c\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u5f8c\u671f\uff0c\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u5be6\u65bd\u91cf\u5bec\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u6703\u6062\u5fa9\u904e\u4f86\uff1f<\/p>\n

2011\u5e74\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u9810\u6e2c\u5c0d\u6b50\u50b5\u5371\u6a5f\u7684\u64d4\u6182\u4f55\u6642\u6703\u7d50\u675f\uff1f<\/p>\n

2016\u5e74\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u9810\u6e2c\u5230\u8ab0\u6703\u52dd\u51fa\u7f8e\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71\u5927\u9078\uff1f\u7136\u5f8c\u57fa\u65bc\u5927\u9078\u7684\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u6703\u600e\u6a23\u904b\u884c\uff1f<\/p>\n

2018\u5e74\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u9810\u6e2c\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u7684\u767c\u751f\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6700\u7d42\u6703\u6f14\u8b8a\u6210\u600e\u6a23\uff1f<\/p>\n

2020\u5e74\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u9810\u6e2c\u5230\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u5230\u4f86\uff1f\u7136\u5f8c\u6703\u6301\u7e8c\u591a\u4e45\uff1f<\/p>\n

2021\u5e74\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u9810\u6e2c\u5230\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u6703\u8aa4\u5224\u901a\u8139\u7684\u8d70\u52e2\uff1f<\/p>\n

2022\u5e74\u521d\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u9810\u6e2c\u5230\u4fc4\u70cf\u6230\u722d\u6703\u8d70\u5411\u54ea\u500b\u65b9\u5411\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u7136\u5f8c\u63a5\u8fd12022\u5e74\u5c3e\u8072\u7684\u4eca\u5929\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u9810\u6e2c\u5230\u672a\u4f86\u5229\u7387\u7684\u8d70\u52e2\u6703\u5982\u4f55\u8b8a\u5316\uff1f\u901a\u8139\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u8def\u5f91\u6703\u662f\u600e\u6a23\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u505a\u5230\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6bcf\u500b\u9810\u6e2c\u96c6\u5408\u8d77\u4f86\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u6709\u4e00\u534a\u7684\u6e96\u78ba\u7387\uff1f\u5373\u5341\u6b21\u9810\u6e2c\u8d77\u78bc\u6709\u4e94\u6b21\u6b63\u78ba\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u4e0d\u505a\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u5b83\u4e0d\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u9810\u6e2c\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u592a\u4f4e\u3002\u66f4\u78ba\u5207\u4e00\u9ede\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u6bcf\u6b21\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u5747\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u662f\u4f4e\u7121\u53ef\u4f4e\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u624d\u96e3\u4ee5\u6191\u8457\u5b8f\u89c0\u9810\u6e2c\u9577\u671f (\u5341\u5e74\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u7dad\u5ea6) \u5728\u6295\u8cc7\u4e0a\u8cfa\u9322\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u56de\u5230\u6295\u8cc7\u672c\u8eab\uff0c\u8f03\u5bb9\u6613\u505a\u5230\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u552f\u6709\u7e7c\u7e8c\u5805\u5b88\u6295\u8cc7\u5927\u5e2b\u6578\u500b\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u539f\u5247\uff1a\u591a\u95dc\u6ce8\u4f01\u696d\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u7279\u8cea\u548c\u50f9\u503c (\u5fae\u89c0\u5c64\u9762)\u3001\u5805\u5b88\u80fd\u529b\u5708\u3001\u8cb7\u5165\u6642\u9810\u7559\u5b89\u5168\u908a\u969b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5353\u7a4e\u59ff\uff0c\u6301\u8b49\u76e3\u6703\u6301\u724c\u4eba\u58eb\uff0c\u535a\u7acb\u7814\u7a76\u5718\u968a\/\u4e2d\u539f\u8cc7\u7522\u7ba1\u7406\u52a9\u7406\u5206\u6790\u54e1<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u95b1\u8b80\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u6709\u95dc\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u66f8\u5f8c\uff0c\u767c\u73fe\u5f88\u591a\u6295\u8cc7\u5927\u5e2b\u90fd\u6703\u50be\u5411\u4e0d\u5c0d\u5b8f\u89c0\u9032\u884c\u9810\u6e2c\uff1a \u5df4\u83f2\u7279(Warren Buffett)\uff1a\u300c\u6211\u5011\u5c0d\u5229\u7387\u8b8a\u5316\u3001\u80a1\u5e02\u5c55\u671b\u3001\u7d93\u6fdf\u6216\u4efb\u4f55\u985e\u4f3c\u7684\u6771\u897f\u6c92\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u300d \u67e5\u7406\u8292\u683c(Charlie Munger)\uff1a\u300c\u6211\u5011\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u6210\u529f\u9810\u6e2c\u4e86\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u624d\u6709\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u6210\u5c31\u7684\u3002\u300d \u970d\u83ef\u30fb\u99ac\u514b\u65af(Howard 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content=\"\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u9810\u6e2c\u5c0d\u6295\u8cc7\u80a1\u7968\u771f\u7684\u4e0d\u91cd\u8981\u55ce\uff1f - \u4e2d\u539f\u535a\u7acb\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u95b1\u8b80\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u6709\u95dc\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u66f8\u5f8c\uff0c\u767c\u73fe\u5f88\u591a\u6295\u8cc7\u5927\u5e2b\u90fd\u6703\u50be\u5411\u4e0d\u5c0d\u5b8f\u89c0\u9032\u884c\u9810\u6e2c\uff1a \u5df4\u83f2\u7279(Warren Buffett)\uff1a\u300c\u6211\u5011\u5c0d\u5229\u7387\u8b8a\u5316\u3001\u80a1\u5e02\u5c55\u671b\u3001\u7d93\u6fdf\u6216\u4efb\u4f55\u985e\u4f3c\u7684\u6771\u897f\u6c92\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u300d \u67e5\u7406\u8292\u683c(Charlie Munger)\uff1a\u300c\u6211\u5011\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u6210\u529f\u9810\u6e2c\u4e86\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u624d\u6709\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u6210\u5c31\u7684\u3002\u300d \u970d\u83ef\u30fb\u99ac\u514b\u65af(Howard 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